1. Evaluation results could be ignored

• The Inter-Ministerial Commission (IMC) may ultimately choose to ignore the results of the evaluation of the conversion requests done by the TWG and convert titles that should not be eligible under the criteria laid out in the presidential decree. This would however be in contravention of Article 11 of the PD; and
• The transparency provided by WRI-Agreco in their role as independent observer will likely limit this, but cannot guarantee that this situation will not occur.
  

2. The resolution of social issues may be deferred

While the forestry code confirms that traditional users’ rights should be maintained in all production forests (Article 44 of the Code), there remain several risks pertinent to the conversion process:

• The timetable for the conversion process is short and does not allow for the full identification of all possible conflicts of issues, even less to assist in the resolution of those conflicts;
• There is very limited information and resources available to identify potential community and indigenous land use and rights issues ahead of the conversion;
• Civil society groups are not well informed and have very limited capacity and resources to engage effectively in the conversion process; and
• As a result, the resolution of some social issues may be deferred to new title holders through the creation of their sustainable business plans – an obligation that forestry companies must complete within four years before being awarded full title.

3. The technical and management capacity within the government might not be adequate to support the evaluation of conversion requests and related Business Plans (Plans de relance, Article 7)

• The short time frame of the overall process (further shortened by the PD) will not allow the full deployment of the project-related GIS capacity. It will hence not be possible to have up-to-date, fully geo-referenced and validated concessions maps to accompany the forest concession contracts to be signed for those titles that are deemed valid for conversion;
• The staff of the TWG has limited capabilities to properly assess all of the technical, financial, business, social and environmental issues covered by the conversion request, notably as regards to the Business Plan; and
• The members of the IMC may not have the knowledge or capabilities to properly assess all of the legal, technical, financial, business, social and environmental issues covered by the conversion requests.

4. Risks subsequent to the completion of the conversion process

• With the issuance of the presidential decree, the conversion process became one of three elements that would trigger the lifting of the moratorium on the issuance of new forest concessions (the conversion process only pertains to existing forest titles). It is WRI’s view that the moratorium should not be lifted until a) sufficient government capacity exists to properly assess, evaluate, approve and monitor the implementation of the required Sustainable Forest Management Plans under the new Forest Code and control illegal logging; and b) some minimum forest zoning is completed;
• There may not be sufficient capacity to properly implement the competitive bidding process for the allocation of new forest concessions under the new Forestry Code; and
• There may not be sufficient capacity within the forest administration to properly assess, approve and monitor sustainable forest management plans as required under the Forest Code.